Linsolv says:
NPCs were wherever was convenient, doing whatever I wanted, with no rhyme or reason to say that players could have outsmarted them if only they'd known, because there was nothing to outsmart.
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... major antagonists (and allies for that matter) moving in directions that made sense for their goals, etc.
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The question is, how much do you think it makes sense to flesh out a character like, say, The Queen of the Horse Lords in advance of her actually appearing? Or, for example, if you're expecting her to come up the next session, how much do you prep in terms of things like stats, planning, astrological signs, blood type etc?
So, I feel like the top two bits have a little bit different subject matter than the last bit. Accordingly, they have slightly different answers. But both are important considerations for running any RPG, right?
RE:
planning the plot, it's hard to have a one-size fits all answer, as the Belief system - as rigid as it sounds - can actually facilitate a wide variety of campaign types. But I would say there's two ways to handle this. Both really come back around to how the PCs and their Beliefs ARE the campaign.
First, I would look to Beliefs as guidance. If the NPC or Antagonist is indeed major enough that what they're doing behind the scenes really matters - like, in a fashion that will impact the PCs and their Beliefs - they should be in someone's Belief, and/or in the Big Picture, and/or Starting Situation, in some fashion (even if that's just by implication, or allusion). And that role in those central narrative devices should largely (like, 100%) inform their plans, goals, and even timelines. The timelines part may lean towards the "wherever and whatever is convenient" side of things, unless the PCs have a defined timeline in their Beliefs.
A big goal of BW (as with most story games) is that you don't plan more than you needed to. You leave blanks for the players to fill in. Which means most often, you are not going to know you even need a particular named NPC until it emerges through play that they have become a significant actor. Which means you may have to stat them on the fly.
This brings us to the second way to handle it, and that is via -wises and other Tests.
That's right. If your PCs Beliefs, or the B.P., or the S.S. doesn't inform what your NPC or major Antagonist is doing, then the PCs should be making some sort of Test to determine it.
Sounds weird, I know. But again, this is how story games work. And BW was one of, if not THE, first to do it.
Using our premises as an example; say it becomes relavant for us to know what kind of escort the Queen is bringing with her to Court. The PC for whom it matters (first) might say, "I want to make an Ettiquette Test to determine that it is not proper to bring a large military escort to a host's Court." As GM I would say, "Ok, that seems to make sense, but also she's no normal Guest, and may not observe normal Ettiquette. Obs 5. Consequence of failure is, she brings whomever she wants, and you get a -1D penalty to any subsequent Social Test, as you're so unprepared for her flaunting of norms."
That's something I was kind of intending on waiting to get into (world-building thru Skill Tests) cuz it's a biggie for traditional gamers, but... well, here we are.
Now for the second bit:
statting out NPCs.
Often you can get away with out statting any but the most-involved, central NPCs. I think the only NPCs I've ever statted out fully (like built via the character burning process) are ones that I was pretty sure were gonna get involved in a
Fight! or
Duel of Wits-level conflict.
Most often, you can handle NPCs (or rather; a PCs stated Task and Intent) as a "Simple" (non-Versus) Test. Just set the Obs based on what makes sense given the Narrative. For those Tests that must be treated as Opposed, you just take that principle one step further and assign the NPC a reasonable Skill or Attribute rating in the 2 - 6 range (+/- modifiers) on the fly.
The middle ground between these two or three scenarios is Bloody Versus, for those significant fights that don't quite warrant a Fight. You need a pretty high level of statting out for BV.
Is this all making sense?