Lady Erliza Daressin explain that patter is simple - the first only lonely remote farms were attacked only. Vampire woman made a conclusion that whatever it is will not attack it's castle with lot of people and guards watching through the night. She suggest to talk to people for more details - Lady Erliza Daressin did not care to do any sophisticated attack accounting and can't provide you with details
Atlas flying around the isle see people working hard, but finish jobs early (and those further from the capital end them earlier) to reach caste before sunset. There are a lot of exceptions to the common pattern: some smaller farms are abandoned, not everyone goes immediately toward the capital, not everyone lock the doors, etc.
It is hard to see if any of those details mean anything important.
Finally you spend the night out - in the countryside, but you are never attacked buy anyone. In the morning Bajaz announce that ship has arrived and you can continue your journey to the other Moonshae Isles.
OOC:
Sorry bud luck with rolls and you need to decide what next. Tomorrow I'll decide where Bajaz takes you to next, meanwhile ffel free to suggest any particular direction or anything you still want to do at
Snowdown